Global Cotton Surplus to Increase, International Group Says

The International Cotton Advisory Committee boosted its forecast for a global surplus of the fiber in the year starting Aug. 1 as consumption eases.

The surplus will be 14.46 million metric tons, up 1.2 percent from last month’s projection and 9 percent from the previous year’s estimate, the Washington-based group said today in a report. Reserves in China, the world’s biggest grower and consumer, may increase again in the 12 months ending July 31, 2013, the committee said.

Global inventory probably will “weigh on international cotton prices,” while “volatility may increase due to the uncertainty related to the Chinese national reserve,” the group said.

World production will be 25.1 million tons, down 0.6 percent from the May estimate and 7.4 percent from the previous season “following the plunge in world prices,” the group said. Cotton futures in New York have plummeted 51 percent in the past year. The U.S. is the top exporter.

Global use will be 23.9 million tons, down 0.6 percent from the May forecast and up 3.4 percent from the previous season, according to the report.

China’s imports may drop to 3.3 million tons from a record 4.6 million, the group said. Purchases by the rest of the world may rise 15 percent to 4.8 million tons.

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