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Fed Stimulus Odds Climb to 80% After Jobs: Morgan Stanley

The Federal Reserve is more likely provide added stimulus when its current effort winds down after a report showed the economy added fewer jobs in May than forecast, according to Morgan Stanley.

The probability of more central bank policy action is 80 percent, up from 50 percent, after the Labor Department reported that U.S. employers added 69,000 jobs in May after an increase of 77,000 the previous month. The median forecast of 85 economists in a Bloomberg News survey before today’s jobs report, was for an increase of 150,000 jobs.

“Any optimism related to the improvement in labor market conditions seen during the winter months is now fading away, and financial conditions have tightened significantly since the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting,” David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley’s chief fixed-income economist in New York, wrote in a note to clients. “The Fed is likely to do what it can to provide some support.”

The U.S. central bank is close to completing its program to replace $400 billion of shorter-term debt in its holdings with longer maturities by the end of this month to support the economy by keeping down borrowing costs. The program, known as Operation Twist, ends this month. The FOMC meets June 20.

The benchmark 10-year yield fell nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 1.47 percent in New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Traders prices. Thirty-year bond yields declined nine basis points to 2.55 percent, reaching 2.5089 percent, below the record 2.5090 percent on Dec. 18, 2008, according to Federal Reserve figures beginning in 1953.

Morgan Stanley is one of the 21 primary dealers that trade directly with the central bank.

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