European Union carbon permits may become more volatile next month because of the prospect of intervention in the market following a review by regulators, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The review by the European Commission in Brussels will be “the key catalyst to stir up the market as early as June,” Konrad Hanschmidt, a New Energy Finance analyst in London, said today in an e-mailed note.
EU permits for December, the industry benchmark, rose 1.7 percent today on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London to 7.03 euros ($8.84) a metric ton at 12:23 p.m. They’ve dropped 60 percent in the past year on concern about oversupply. The 60-day volatility fell to 57 percent today from 79 percent on March 1, according to ICE data compiled by Bloomberg.
“That may rise again once the market gets more political fuel,” Hanschmidt said. “With a U.S. Senate hearing and an extended deadline for Chinese and Indian airlines to submit data to the EU, June could be a crucial month in the dispute between the EU and its major trading partners on the inclusion of aviation in the EU emissions trading system” this year.
The contract may trade in a range from 6.70 euros to 7.40 euros this week, he said.