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Barclays’ Chang Says Yuan Appreciation to Return in Second Half

Chang Jian, an economist with Barclays Capital in Hong Kong, comments after the People’s Bank of China widened the yuan’s trading band.

“Narrowing trade surpluses and slowing capital inflows suggests less pressures on the yuan to appreciate. But we still expect appreciation to return in the second half of the year with export growth recovering, capital inflows resuming and U.S. election entering the final stage.”

“They can still exert influence to the direction of the rate through setting the daily fixing rate, but market supply and demand will play greater role.”

“The recent development with greater two-way expectations provides a good opportunity for them to move ahead with the yuan reform, as believed by most observers and the officials.”

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