Ukraine’s rapeseed exports will fall 12 percent to 1.25 million metric tons this year due to bad weather and declining demand in the European Union, Kiev-based agriculture researcher UkrAgroConsult said.
Exports for the year started July 1 may still fall further, Yulia Garkavenko, UkrArgoConsult rapeseed analyst, said today. In December, the researcher expected shipments to be 1.35 million tons.
Ukraine exported 954,000 tons of rapeseed in the July to January period, or 29 percent less than 1.35 million tons a year earlier, the researcher said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.
Ukraine’s winter rapeseed is in the worst condition it’s been in for three years after plants were weakened by an autumn drought and winter frosts. About 30 percent to 40 percent of the 962,000 hectares (2.37 million acres) planted will be lost, the researcher said.
In addition to having a smaller harvest, exports will also fall because the EU is buying more Australian canola, which is a substitute for Ukrainian rapeseed used for bio-diesel production, Garkavenko said.
Spring rapeseed planting may rise to 100,000 hectares from 77,000 hectares a year before, the researcher said. The 2012 rapeseed crop will probably fall by 21 percent to 1.1 million tons from 1.44 million tons in 2011, according to UkrAgroConsult.