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Japan Bond Futures May Fall on ‘Dead Cross’: Technical Analysis

Japan’s bond futures may fall to the lowest level since December after forming a “dead cross,” Mizuho Investors Securities Co. said, citing trading patterns.

A dead cross is created when a short-term moving average drops below a longer-term one, signaling prices may continue to slide. The five-day average for benchmark 10-year bond futures fell below the 20- and 90-day lines yesterday, when the contract for March delivery declined 0.10 to 142.14.

Should the lead contract break below support at about 141.98, it will approach the Dec. 1 low of 141.52, said Akihiko Inoue, chief strategist at Mizuho Investors Securities, a unit of Japan’s third-largest bank by market value. Support is where buy orders may be clustered.

“With the contract also falling below the bottom of the cloud on the ichimoku chart,” futures may stay low, Inoue said.

An ichimoku chart analyzes the midpoints of historic highs and lows. The cloud refers to the area between the first and second leading-span lines on the chart and is used to show an area where buy orders may be clustered.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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