Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login Bloomberg Terminal Demo Request


Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world.


Financial Products

Enterprise Products


Customer Support

  • Americas

    +1 212 318 2000

  • Europe, Middle East, & Africa

    +44 20 7330 7500

  • Asia Pacific

    +65 6212 1000


Industry Products

Media Services

Follow Us

Gold Moving Average Signaling a Bear Market: Technical Analysis

Gold Moving Average Signaling a Bear Market
Gold bullion will decline to $1,300 this year, a drop of almost 20 percent from the Jan. 6 closing price of $1,616.80. Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

Gold prices, down 16 percent from a record in September, are headed into a bear market at $1,300 an ounce this year, according to technical analysis by Lance Roberts at Streettalk Advisors LLC.

The weekly moving-average convergence-divergence graph, a measure derived by subtracting a long-term trend from a shorter one, is indicating prices are likely to decline further, said Roberts, Streettalk’s chief executive officer. Since the end of September, an MACD chart using 26- and 12-week moving averages has been below a nine-week measure known as the signal line, and the gap has been widening.

“The sell signal remains strong, and so there is still some time before we see more buyers than sellers,” Roberts said in a telephone interview from Houston. “The trend is negative, so we have to be more cautious.”

On Dec. 29, gold futures on the Comex in New York settled 19 percent below their record close of $1,891.90 on Aug. 22, about 1 percentage point shy of the 20 percent needed for a bear market. After reaching a record $1,923.70 on Sept. 6, the price fell to $1,523.90 on Dec. 29, the lowest since July 7.

Roberts said bullion will decline to $1,300 this year, a drop of almost 20 percent from the Jan. 6 closing price of $1,616.80.

If the indicator line in an MACD chart falls below the signal line, it is pointing to lower prices, and if it crosses above the shorter-term moving average, the indication is bullish, Roberts said.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Please upgrade your Browser

Your browser is out-of-date. Please download one of these excellent browsers:

Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Opera or Internet Explorer.