The next coffee crop in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of the commodity, may be 45 million to 50 million bags, according to agents surveyed by Cepea, a University of Sao Paulo research group.
Farmers in the South American country may not harvest a crop bigger than the record 48.5 million bags registered in the 2002-03 season, Margarete Boteon, a Cepea analyst, wrote in a report yesterday. The 2012-13 crop in Brazil starts in July and it’s part of a high-yielding half of a two-year cycle.
“The initial expectation that the next season might hit a record may not be confirmed due to the dry weather which affected important regions until October,” Boteon wrote in the report. “Frosts hit some coffee crops between June and July.”
A lack of rainfall in some producing regions last month may also limit output, she said. Good volume of rain in the last two months of the year is important to ensure desirable development of the beans for the next periods, she said.
A bag of coffee weighs 60 kilograms (132 pounds).