Polish job growth at companies employing more than nine workers unexpectedly held steady in November while wage growth slumped, supporting policy makers’ arguments that borrowing costs can stay unchanged.
Corporate employment, which had slowed for four months, rose 2.5 percent from a year earlier, matching October’s increase, the Central Statistical Office in Warsaw said today. That exceeded the 2.3 percent median estimate of 23 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Hiring increased 0.1 percent from the previous month.
Poland’s economy is the biggest among the European Union’s eastern members and the only one in the bloc to avoid a recession in 2009. Gross domestic product may expand more than 4 percent this year, according to government forecasts, as corporate investment increases, domestic demand improves and a weaker zloty helps boost exports, outweighing the effect of the debt crisis in the neighboring euro region.
“Polish companies have been hiring and if the Polish economy weakening is relatively minor, the employment dynamics may stay positive next year,” said Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy SA in Warsaw. “The data supports the current policy of unchanged rates that will be maintained also throughout the whole year of 2012.”
The zloty traded at 4.493 per euro at 3:55 p.m. in Warsaw, unchanged on the data and up from 4.526 late yesterday. The yield on the government’s five-year bond fell 0.04 basis points to 5.34.
Earlier this month, the central bank left the benchmark seven-day interest rate at 4.5 percent for a sixth month.
“I don’t expect the economy to slow next year to such an extent that we would be forced into monetary-policy easing,” Jerzy Hausner, a member of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Council, said in a Dec. 13 interview.
Average gross wages rose 4.4 percent from a year earlier in November, slowing from 5.1 percent the previous month. That’s below the 5.3 percent median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Wages rose 1.8 percent from October.