Russian grain exports probably will exceed 24 million metric tons in the current season, according to the country’s Grain Union.
The estimate assumes a “moderately optimistic scenario,” Alexander Korbut, the group’s vice president, said today by phone from Moscow. Shipments are unlikely to top 25 million tons because world grain prices are stagnating and Ukraine and Kazakhstan are competing for exports, he said.
“The figure will be somewhere between these two figures,” Korbut said. “Ukraine started to win tenders, so life starts to change a bit.”
Prospects for grain exports from Russia will be clearer in March, when more information will be available on crop conditions in the country as well as Ukraine and the U.S., according to Korbut. Winter grains planted in southern Russia “are not in a very good shape,” he said.
Russia exported 13.7 million tons of grain as of Nov. 23 in the marketing year begun July 1, according to Agriculture Ministry data. Shipments may reach 2.3 million to 2.4 million tons this month and come to about 2 million tons in December, Korbut said.