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Soybeans Rally as Slump May Lure Importers Amid Tighter Supply

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Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose in Chicago on speculation the oilseed’s 18 percent plunge since August may lure importers amid tightening global supplies.

Prices may rally by December after the U.S. harvest when global supplies start to drop, said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Co. China may buy 57 million metric tons of soybeans in 2011-12, up from 52 million tons a year earlier, Morgan Stanley forecast last month. That compares with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 56.5 million-ton estimate.

“Soybeans are already hitting a bottom,” Emori said today by phone from Tokyo. “It’s already giving a good buying opportunity to market participants.”

Soybeans for January delivery climbed 6.5 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $12.0825 a bushel by 1:15 p.m. London time on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices increased for a first session in three. China is the top global importer of the oilseed, which reached a 2011 high of $14.65 on Aug. 31.

“At some point, China will have to buy,” ending a slide in U.S. exports, Emori said. The slump in prices may attract buying from the Asian country, he said.

Corn may rise on speculation the USDA will lower its yield projection in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington tomorrow.

Corn Yields

“Everyone is watching WASDE tomorrow expecting the USDA to cut yields,” said Erin FitzPatrick, an analyst at Rabobank International in London. She estimated corn yields at 147.9 bushels an acre, below the USDA’s October forecast of 148.1 bushels.

“If the USDA doesn’t deliver the expected cut to corn production, there will be a bearish response in prices,” FitzPatrick said.

Corn for delivery in December advanced 2.25 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $6.555 a bushel. The grain has climbed 11 percent since the end of September on speculation the crop in the U.S., the world’s biggest producer and exporter, will be less than expected.

The USDA will probably forecast U.S. corn output of 314.7 million tons, 27.4 million tons less than four months ago, the average estimate of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg showed. The cut is equal to the harvest in Argentina, the second-biggest exporter. The USDA already expects a third annual drop in global corn stockpiles.

December-delivery wheat gained 1.5 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $6.4025 a bushel. Milling wheat for January delivery traded on NYSE Liffe in Paris rose 0.4 percent to 187 euros ($257.66) a ton.

To contact the reporters on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net; Tony C. Dreibus in London at tdreibus@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net

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