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East Europe Bad Loans Peaked This Year, Raiffeisen Says

Non-performing loans in eastern Europe probably peaked this year, according to a study by analysts at Raiffeisen Bank International AG.

Hungary is the exception, according to Gunter Deuber and Jovan Sikimic at Raiffeisen in Vienna. While bad loans stood at 13 percent at the end of the first six months, a peak of 16 percent isn’t seen until 2013, with delinquencies in Hungary expected to fall to 11 percent to 13 percent three to four years after they hit the highest point.

Following is a table showing the breakdown by country. Amounts are in percent:

================================================================
Country           Current/         NPLs in 3-4 years time
                   peak          Optimistic      Pessimistic
================================================================
Albania            17.0                 9             14
Bosnia             11.8                 5              8
Bulgaria           13.5                 4              9
================================================================
Country         Current/            NPLs in 3-4 years time
                   peak          Optimistic      Pessimistic
================================================================
Croatia            11.9                 5             10
Czech Republic      6.3                 3              4
Hungary            16.0 (peak = 2013)
Poland              7.9                 3              5
Romania            13.4                 5              9
Russia              5.7                 2              5
Serbia             18.1                 7             14
Slovak Republic     5.8                 2              4
Slovenia            3.9                 3              3
Ukraine            40.0                15             28
================================================================

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