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Commodities May Rise 6% in Next Three Weeks: Technical Analysis

Commodities may rise about 6 percent in three weeks, extending a rebound from a one-year low, according to technical analysis by Bank of America Corp.

The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities may gain to its 100-day moving average of 328 within two weeks and the 200-day moving average of 339 a week later, according to MacNeil Curry, head of foreign exchange and interest rates technical strategy at the Bank of America in New York. That would put the CRB index near the 50 percent retracement of its decline from July 2008 to February 2009, one of the levels singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis.

“Once we get this break to the 100-day and we hold it, the 50 percent and the 200-day are going to be just stopping blocks within a larger advance,” Curry said by phone on Nov. 4.

The CRB index has rebounded 9.6 percent from 292.39 on Oct. 4, the lowest since Oct. 8, 2010, and closed at 320.44 on Nov. 4. It’s down 3.7 percent this year after gaining 17 percent in 2010. “We need to get above 328 for the first indication that this correction has run its course,” Currie said.

The 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level comes at 337. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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