The U.S. Northeast will be warmer than normal from Nov. 9 to Nov. 18, when colder weather may start to seep into the region, said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC.
Rogers’ 6- to 10-day and 11- to 15-day forecasts predict temperatures in the Northeast will be 3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.6 to 2.7 Celsius) above normal. After that, computer forecast models suggest cooler air may arrive.
“Right now, the thinking is that cool-to-cold weather will rush under the block toward the Midwest and East, but not dig as deep into the South yet,” Rogers said today in a note to clients. “This weekend will be critical to watch for model consensus and consistency to build confidence.”
Traders use long-range temperature predictions to gauge energy use and market fluctuations. Hot or cold weather can increase demand for heating and cooling, and power plants use about 30 percent of the nation’s gas supplies, according to Energy Department data.
Temperatures in California are forecast to remain about 3 degrees lower than normal through Nov. 9 to Nov. 13 before becoming about 5 degrees lower in the Nov. 14 to Nov. 18 timeframe, said Rogers from his office in Bethesda, Maryland.
The Pacific Northwest will probably cool as well, according to Rogers’s 10- to 15-day forecast.
The average temperature for this weekend in Seattle is about 47 degrees, while in Burbank, California, it’s 62, according to MDA EarthSat Weather in Gaithersburg, Maryland. In New York, the normal is about 51; in Boston, 48; Chicago, 45; and Dallas, about 61.