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Revised EU Stress Test Would See 66 Banks Fail, Analysts Say

Revised EU Stress Test Would See 66 Banks Fail
Visitors enter the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) headquarters in London, U.K. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- At least 66 of Europe’s biggest banks would fail a revised European Union stress test and need to raise about 220 billion euros ($302.3 billion) of capital, Credit Suisse AG analysts said.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Deutsche Bank AG and BNP Paribas SA would need the most, a combined total of about 47 billion euros, analysts led by Carla Antunes-Silva wrote in a note to clients today. Societe Generale SA and Barclays Plc would each need about 13 billion euros of fresh capital.

Eight banks out of the 90 tested failed the European Banking Authority’s July 15 stress test, with a combined capital shortfall of 2.5 billion euros.

“We would see a bank recapitalization as a step in the right direction, although at this stage whilst the market is becoming increasingly optimistic, we remain cautious until further details” emerge, Antunes-Silva said. “We may see proposals over the coming days and weeks, but implementation may take longer than hoped for.”

European policy makers are debating how to recapitalize the region’s troubled banks as the sovereign debt crisis threatens to damage balance sheets, undermining recovery prospects. European leaders meet on Oct. 23 to discuss the crisis, which has driven Greece toward default and threatened the survival of the 17-nation currency.

Credit Suisse’s analysis is based on a re-run of the EBA’s July stress tests updated to reflect banks’ first-half results. It uses a 9 percent core Tier 1 capital ratio, rather than the 5 percent rate used in July.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net

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