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Japan Bond Futures May Advance to Year High: Technical Analysis

Japan’s bond futures may rise to the highest level this year, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., citing an ichimoku chart of the securities.

The futures may advance toward “considerably high” levels by the middle of this month as the conversion line and baseline approach the top of the so-called cloud of the chart, said Katsutoshi Inadome, a Tokyo-based fixed-income strategist at the unit of Japan’s largest bank.

“The top of the ichimoku cloud is acting as a support for bond futures,” said Inadome.

Ten-year bond futures reached 143.07 on Sept. 6, the highest for the benchmark contract since Nov. 8, 2010. They declined to a three-week low of 142.16 on Sept. 30 and rebounded to as much as 142.62 yesterday. Should the futures breach the Sept. 6 high, the next target would be the “key psychological levels” of 143.30 or 143.50, Inadome said.

An ichimoku chart analyzes the midpoints of historic highs and lows. The baseline is the sum of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 trading days. The conversion line is the same calculation over the past nine trading days. The cloud refers to the area between the first and second leading-span lines on the chart and is used to show an area where buy orders may be clustered.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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