Growth in world consumption of 10 oilseeds will exceed production gains in the 2011-12 season on a smaller U.S. soybean crop, reducing the stocks-to-use ratio to a three-year low, Oil World forecast.
Oilseed use probably will climb 3.9 percent to 461.2 million metric tons as global production advances 0.7 percent to 456.5 million tons, the Hamburg-based researcher said today in a weekly report.
Soybeans climbed 24 percent in Chicago trading in the past year on speculation lower planting and adverse weather will cut output of the oilseed in the U.S., the largest grower and exporter. Soybeans accounted for 59 percent of world oilseed production in the past two years, according to Oil World.
“Oilseed production will turn out below potential,” the researcher said. “World supplies of oilseeds and grains will, as a whole, be short in the 2011-12 season. Consumption will exceed production, resulting in a decline in stocks.”
The ratio of oilseed stocks to usage is forecast to slide to 18.1 percent from 19.9 percent in 2010-11, according to Oil World. That would be the lowest level since the 14.6 percent registered in the 2008-09 season.
World soybean production will fall to 260.9 million tons from 265.4 million tons as the U.S. crop slides to 84 million tons from 90.6 million tons, Oil World forecast. Argentina’s harvest probably will rise to 53 million tons from 49.2 million tons as Brazil’s crop slips to 73.3 million tons from 75.3 million tons, according to the report.
“Prospects for the Southern Hemisphere are still rather vague,” Oil World said. “Soybeans are competing for acreage with grains. In Argentina and Brazil, plantings of corn and wheat will increase for the 2011-12 crops.”
Brazil is the world’s second-biggest soybean exporter, and Argentina ranks third. China is the top global importer.
Sunflower-seed production will probably jump to a record 37.1 million tons from 33.3 million tons a year earlier on bigger crops in Russia, Ukraine and France, according to Oil World. Russia’s harvest may rise to 8.7 million tons from 5.65 million tons, the researcher forecast.
World production of rapeseed and canola will fall to 59 million tons from 60.2 million tons on smaller harvests in Germany and China, according to the report. The German rapeseed crop probably will drop to 4.1 million tons from 5.7 million tons, the researcher said.
The stocks-to-use ratio for sunflower seed is forecast to rise to 7.3 percent in 2011-12, while the rapeseed ratio will slide to 9.5 percent from 10.4 percent, Oil World said.
Global output of cotton seed will climb to 47.9 million tons from 44.3 million tons, while production of groundnuts will advance to 25.2 million tons from 25.01 million tons, according to the researcher.