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Yen Intervention Likely This Week, Credit Suisse’s Fukaya Says

Japan is likely to intervene in the foreign-exchange market if the yen strengthens to the 75 level against the dollar again after reaching a postwar high last week, Koji Fukaya, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Credit Suisse Group AG said in an interview. Investor trading will probably reflect nervousness and be driven by movements in U.S. stocks and comments by Japanese officials, he said.

On yen intervention:

“The yen is being sold on the back of heightened expectations of intervention as there were numerous comments and reports coming out over the weekend.”

“If the yen appreciates further, Japan is very likely to intervene. It may be difficult for speculators to continue building yen long positions given the growing risk of intervention.”

On reports of European Central Bank opposition to yen intervention:

“It’s probably difficult for European officials to insist the Japanese do not take any action in the market since the ECB is already buying its own bonds.”

On factors influencing currency markets:

“Whether or not U.S. stocks will hit a second bottom or will fall further will dictate the global market sentiment.”

“Bernanke may not make such dovish comments” at the Federal Reserve’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week. “There’s a risk the yen will strengthen regardless of Fed statements, but that leaves us questions as to who will buy the yen when the U.S. interest rates are low and yen so high.” “It’s possible for Japanese exporters to sell the yen, but I don’t think they will keep on selling at this point yet.”

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