Oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ Middle East members are rising ahead of a boost in seasonal demand from Asia, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements.
Supplies from the Middle East will increase 1.9 percent to 17.78 million barrels a day in the four weeks to August 6, the Halifax, England-based researcher said today in a report. That compares with 17.44 million barrels in the period to July 9. The data include non-OPEC members Oman and Yemen.
“There’s real evidence that volume is going up for crudes from the Middle East,” Roy Mason, Oil Movements’ founder, said by telephone from Halifax. “Refinery runs will go up in Asia in August,” spurring demand for OPEC crude, he said.
Shipments from all OPEC members, excluding Ecuador and Angola, will rise to 23.05 million barrels a day in the four weeks to August 6, according to Oil Movements estimates. That’s up 1.6 percent from 22.69 million in the month to July 9.
“We’re running into the peak season for Middle East demand, meaning that more crude will be retained domestically” among producers, Mason said.
Crude on board tankers will average 486.37 million barrels in the four weeks, down 0.3 percent from 487.84 million in the period to July 9, the researcher said.
Oil Movements calculates shipments by keeping a tally of tanker-rental agreements. Its figures exclude crude held on board ships as floating storage.
Daily supply from the 11 OPEC members bound by quotas was 27.31 million barrels a day last month, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on July 13. That compares with 26.51 million in May.
OPEC’s members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Iraq is exempt from the quota system.