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Turkish Election Result Best Outcome for Markets, Altug Says

Financial markets will welcome the re-election of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as positive for political stability, Ozgur Altug, chief economist at BGC Partners, said today in a telephone interview.

The governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has 50 percent of votes, or 326 seats in the 550-seat parliament, with 98 percent of ballots counted, according to preliminary results published by local media.

The main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, is projected to get 26 percent of the vote, early results showed. Erdogan’s Islamist-leaning party needs 330 seats in the assembly in Ankara to take planned constitutional changes to a referendum without opposition support.

On the market response:

“This is probably the best outcome for markets for two reasons: It means the AKP remains in charge as a single government for another four years, which markets will see as continuation of political stability. Additionally, they have less than 330 seats, which means they’ll be forced to seek compromise, and that means less political tension.”

On economic policy:

“The political process (of setting up the government) will take at least a month. Everyone in the markets wants a package of measures to deal with the current-account deficit but they’ll have to give them at least a month for that.”

On party perceptions:

“I think all of the parties will concentrate on something else in this result. The AKP will say that half of the population backs us. The CHP will concentrate on the increase in the number of deputies in parliament and the MHP will say that we managed to preserve our popularity despite all the negative factors and the sex tapes. And the independents are happy having won about 30 seats from 21. Everyone looks happy and, definitely, financial markets will be.”

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