A shift by sovereign wealth funds to riskier assets may lead to higher interest rates in the U.S. as demand for American debt declines, according to a book released by the International Monetary Fund in Beijing today.
The change may have a “minimal” effect on the dollar as sovereign wealth funds seeking greater returns shift to U.S. equities and alternatives, according to the book entitled Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds, which was released as the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds held meetings in the Chinese capital this week.
A rebalancing of the global economy may cause national savings in U.S. creditor nations to decline, weakening demand for American debt. The diversification of those nation’s foreign reserves may lead to a more subdued outlook for net capital flows to the U.S., according to the book.
Sovereign wealth fund assets under management may rise to between $4 trillion and $6 trillion by 2014, from estimates of between $1.8 trillion to $2.4 trillion at the end of 2008, according to the book.