U.S. soybean inventories will be in a “slight surplus” in the 2010-11 crop year on weaker Chinese imports of the oilseed, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said as it raised stockpile estimates.
Increased competition from South America will “limit the U.S. inventory drawdown,” analysts Damien Courvalin and Allison Nathan said in a report today. Brazil is the world’s second-biggest soybean exporter after the U.S., and Argentina ranks third. The analysts also said the acreage planted with the oilseed will shrink this year.
“We acknowledge, however, that a longer slowdown in Chinese imports than we expect and corn-to-soybean acreage shifts present downside risk to our forecast,” they said.
Soybeans will trade at $15 a bushel in three months’ time, Goldman Sachs said. The oilseed for July delivery was at $13.385 at 9:03 a.m. London time on the Chicago Board of Trade. The bank forecast a price of $15.75 in both six and 12 months.