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Commerzbank Sees EU Carbon Price Rising to 20 Euros by End-2011

European Union carbon allowances will increase by more than a third to 20 euros a metric ton by the end of next year amid demand from energy producers and airlines, according to Commerzbank AG.

“The European power sector today lacks 120 million tons worth of certificates,” Commerzbank analysts said in a research note published today. “Demand should rise sharply, given that no free allotments will be made to this sector as of 2013.”

Airlines, which will join the EU emissions trading system as of 2012, will also experience a shortage of permits amid forecast increases in air travel, Commerzbank said.

“If the emissions reduction target is raised from 20% to 30% of 1990 levels by 2020, as proposed by the EU Commission and endorsed by the European Parliament, supply could rapidly dry up on the market,” the bank said

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