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China Day Ahead: Yuan Gain May Boost U.S. Jobs; Rare-Earth Rule

Paul Tudor Jones, founder of $11.5 billion hedge-fund firm Tudor Investment Corp., said a revaluation of China’s yuan would do more to cut U.S. unemployment than asset purchases by the Federal Reserve.

A 30 percent revaluation of China’s currency against the dollar over two years, followed partially by other nations such as Brazil, Russia and India, would result in a trade-weighted 8.5 percent depreciation of the U.S. currency, Jones said in an Oct. 21 investor letter. This strategy would create 3 million jobs in the U.S. and cut the unemployment rate by 1.4 percent by 2014, he said.

A revaluation is “almost six times as powerful in reducing unemployment as the Fed’s $1+ trillion worth of quantitative easing,” Jones, 56, said in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg. “The Fed’s large-scale asset purchases will have a minimal impact on unemployment that completely fades to zero by 2015.”

WTO & Rare Earths

China may be vulnerable in seeking to defend its restraints on the export of rare earths or other commodities because of conditions it accepted when joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, a former WTO judge said.

While the trade arbiter’s rules allow nations to tax exports and safeguard natural resources, China signed pledges that it would only tax or limit exports from a list of specific raw materials, said James Bacchus, a lawyer at Greenberg Traurig LLP in Washington. WTO rules prohibit export quotas, he said.

“What makes China vulnerable is the accession agreement it signed” to join the WTO, Bacchus, who was chairman of the WTO’s appellate body, told reporters at a conference on rare earths in Washington.

Wind-Turbine Tenders

China’s tender for turbine makers to supply 3.5 gigawatts of wind power projects in Xinjiang and Hebei drew bids that were significantly lower than previous auctions, according to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst who attended an event to open the bids.

Chinese wind turbine manufacturers Sinovel Wind Co., Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co. and Dongfang Electric Corp. submitted bids for all of the 24 projects, said An Na, the Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst who attended the ceremony held by the National Energy Administration in Beijing. A total of 177 bids were received for all the projects, she said.

China Iran Oil Warning

A reduction in China’s imports of crude oil from Iran may be a “warning sign” regarding the Middle Eastern country’s pursuit of nuclear technology, according to consultants Petromatrix GmbH.

China cut crude imports from Iran in the period from January to September compared with a year ago even as the world’s biggest energy consumer shipped in more oil, Petromatrix said. It decreased supplies from Iran to 415,000 barrels a day, from 499,000 a day last year, Petromatrix said, citing data from the Beijing-based Customs General Administration.

Sinovel IPO Delayed

Sinovel Wind Co., a Chinese wind turbine maker, faces further investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which canceled a planned meeting to consider the company’s IPO.

The watchdog needs to probe “certain matters” at Sinovel before considering permitting the sale of 105.1 million shares in an initial public offering on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the commission said in a statement on its website, without giving details.

U.S. Copper Pipe Duties

Chinese and Mexican copper pipe will face U.S. dumping duties after a trade panel concluded that American makers may be harmed by the low-cost imports of the plumbing and heating pipes.

The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled 5-0 in favor of a complaint by Memphis, Tennessee-based Mueller Industries Inc. and Cerro Flow Products LLC in St. Louis. It’s the last of four steps the manufacturers needed to clear to get tariffs imposed on the pipes.

Obama Watching Rare Earths

The Obama administration is “monitoring” reports about cuts in exports of rare earths from China, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said.

President Barack Obama’s National Security Council and the National Economic Council are keeping watch to see whether China is slowing down shipments of the minerals, Gibbs said at a briefing.


Most U.S. stocks fell, a day after benchmark indexes climbed to almost six-month highs, as results that disappointed investors at companies from U.S. Steel Corp. to Kimberly-Clark Corp. offset higher-than-estimated consumer confidence.

U.S. Steel tumbled 3.2 percent after a surprise quarterly loss because of repair costs. Kimberly-Clark Corp., the maker of Huggies diapers and Kleenex tissues, lost 6 percent as profit dropped amid higher costs for materials. International Business Machines Corp. climbed after its board authorized the company to buy back as much as $10 billion in stock.

About 10 stocks retreated for every nine that rose on U.S. exchanges. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell less than 0.1 percent to 1,185.16 at 3:10 p.m. in New York after gaining as much as 0.1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.49 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,169.54, with IBM contributing the most to the gain.


Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (2600 HK): The aluminum said it will give parent Aluminum Corporation of China a guarantee for Chinalco’s obligations for their venture with Rio Tinto Plc to develop and operate of the Simandou project in Guinea in west Africa. The stock fell 4.3 percent to HK$7.54.

China Coal Energy Co. (601898 CH) said its net profit rose 14.2 percent in the third quarter to 1.61 billion yuan. The stock dropped 1.5 percent to 12.94 yuan.

China Sinoma International Engineering Co. (600970 CH): The supplier of cement-making equipment said it signed a 65.35 million euro contract to build a production line for Syria’s United Cement Group. The stock fell 3.2 percent to 37.03 yuan.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. (3800 HK): The solar equipment maker, whose shareholders include China’s sovereign wealth fund, said it will supply 350 megawatts of solar wafers to Neo Solar Power Corp., a Taiwanese solar-cell maker. The stock fell 3.2 percent to HK$2.45.

Huadian Power International Co. (600027 CH): The power producer forecasted its full-year profit might decline by more than 50 percent after posting a third-quarter loss of 383.78 million yuan ($57.6 million). The stock fell 0.2 percent on Oct. 25 to 4.16 yuan.

KWG Property Holding Ltd. (1813 HK): The developer said it sold 120 units in the Suzhou Apex development over the weekend at 180 million yuan ($27 million), or 14,200 yuan per square meter. The stock gained 0.3 percent to HK$6.33.

Longfor Properties Co. (960 HK): The developer said it bought a 2.88 million-square-meter site in Yantai, Shandong province at auction for 3.42 billion yuan, and can build as much as 4.98 million square meters of residential, commercial, recreational, medical and ancillary space on the site. The stock gained 0.1 percent to HK$9.28.

Maoye International Holdings Ltd. (848 HK): The department-store operator said it agreed to buy a six-story commercial building in Linyi city, Shandong province, for 311.2 million yuan in cash. The stock fell 0.9 percent to HK$3.32.

Shandong Gold Mining Co. (600547 CH) said its third-quarter net income rose 156.6 percent from a year ago to 361.5 million yuan. The stock declined 2.3 percent to 62.48 yuan.

Shenergy Co. (600642 CH) will raise 2.2 billion yuan issuing 262.9 million shares at 8.39 yuan each, the company said in a Shanghai stock exchange filing. The stock dropped 0.4 percent to 9.31 yuan.

Shenzhen Airport Co. (000089 CH): The airport operator said third-quarter profit rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier. The stock rose 0.8 percent to 6.41 yuan.

Weichai Power Co. (2338 HK): The diesel-engine maker said third-quarter net income rose 35 percent to 1.57 billion yuan, or 1.88 yuan per share, on sales that gained 42 percent to 13.7 billion yuan. Full-year profit will rise as much as 105 percent. The stock gained 1.4 percent to HK$95.70.

Zhongjin Gold Co. (600489 CH) expects its full-year net income to increase about 100 percent on higher production and the rise in gold prices. Its third-quarter net income rose 122.3 percent. The stock fell 1.9 percent to 45.85 yuan.


China shale-gas summit in Shanghai

Agricultural Bank of China
Bank of China
BOC Hong Kong
China Oilfield
China Southern Airlines
Cosco Pacific
Jiangxi Copper
Ping An Insurance
Shenzhen Development Bank
Taigang Securities
Tianjin Port
Zijin Mining


9:10am    Paul Schulte, CCB International, Global Head of
          Financial Strategy and Asia Banks Research
9:40 am    Merle Hinrichs, Global Sources, Chairman & CEO
10:10am   Johnson Leung, Tufton Oceanic Far East, Sr. Shipping
12:10pm   Mitul Kotecha, Credit Agricole CIB, Head of Global
          Foreign Exchange Strategy

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