German exports will rise at the fastest pace in a decade this year and exceed the 1 trillion-euro ($1.4 trillion) level for the first time in 2011, fueled by demand for cars and machinery from outside Europe, the BGA federation said.
Exports will grow about 16 percent, boosting the value of goods and services sold abroad in 2010 to 937 billion euros, the Berlin-based group said today, revising an August forecast of about 10 percent. Exports will climb about 7 percent next year, the federation said.
“German exports are booming,” BGA President Anton Boerner said in a prepared speech. “Foreign orders are signed and sealed for the rest of the year and we’re optimistic looking ahead,” though the federation is “concerned” about the risk of a recession in the U.S.
The BGA expects shipments abroad, which pulled the German economy out of a recession this year, to grow 25 percent to countries outside Europe this year. Exports to the European Union’s 27 members, many of which are struggling to manage bloated deficits, will grow 13.5 percent, the BGA said.
Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, is leading the region’s recovery from the recession. Growth accelerated to 2.2 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in two decades, while economies such as Greece and Ireland contracted. The Bundesbank said yesterday that Germany’s economy may expand more than 3 percent this year.
The BGA said it expects imports to climb about 17 percent this year to 789 billion euros, creating a net trade surplus of 148 billion euros.
The possibility that the U.S. economy will enter a recession poses a risk to exports in the medium term, Boerner said. The weaker U.S. currency “is already beginning to make exports to the dollar area more difficult,” he said.