Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Copper in Longest Rally This Year

The following are the top stories on metals, agriculture and shipping.


Forecast Prior Time

(N.Y.) Change in Nonfarm Payrolls SEP -5K -54K 8:30 Change in Private Payrolls SEP 75K 67K 8:30 Unemployment Rate SEP 9.7% 9.6% 8:30 U.S. Corn Production OCT 12973M 13160M 8:30 U.S. Soybean Production OCT 3499M 3483M 8:30 World Wheat End Stocks OCT 870M 902M 8:30 U.S. Cotton Production OCT 18.9M 18.84M 8:30

Metal Prices: ($/ton)

Last % Chg Copper 8,110 +0.1 Aluminum 2,345 +0.9 Zinc 2,256 -0.2 Lead 2,222 +0.6 Nickel 24,000 +0.4 Tin 25,800 +0.8

Other Markets:

Last %Chg %YTD U.S. Dollar Index 77.359 -0.04 -0.6 Crude Oil $81.69 +0.4 +2.6 Gold $1,333.70 -0.06 +21 MSCI World Index 1,204.80 -0.13 +3.1 *T

TOP STORIES: Gold May Jump to $2,000 Amid Currency ‘Battle’: Chart of the Day

Gold futures may surge 50 percent to $2,000 an ounce next year as central banks ramp up stimulus programs, said Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital in New York.

Tea Prices May Climb as India Output Drops, Labor Costs Rise

Tea prices in India, the biggest grower after China, may climb as labor costs rise and crop damage from pest attacks widens a production deficit, according to the state-run Tea Board of India.

Merchant Hedge Fund’s Coleman, King Buy Rubber Trader

Michael Coleman, who co-manages the $1.3 billion Merchant Commodity Fund, and his partner Doug King have bought a stake in a Singapore-based rubber trader, which had sales of about $1 billion last year.

Aluminum Is ‘Probing’ Resistance of $2,400: Technical Analysis

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum is “probing resistance” of $2,400 a metric ton and may gain 6.4 percent to this year’s peak, according to a technical analysis by Barclays Capital.

INDUSTRIAL METALS: Copper Heads for Longest Rally Since January as Dollar Retreats

Copper rebounded, on pace for its longest winning streak in nine months, as the dollar declined and investors in China bought the metal after London prices advanced during the country’s week-long National Day holiday. Lead and nickel gained.

Copper May Drop in London on Concerns Over Demand, Survey Shows

Copper may decline on speculation that further efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy could take time to produce a demand rebound, a survey showed.

Alcoa Says Chinese Auto Demand Driving Growth in Aluminum Use

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates and said growing Chinese demand will help boost global use by 13 percent this year.

MINING: BHP Billiton Copper Output May Rise 65% by 2020, Deutsche Says

BHP Billiton Ltd., majority owner of the world’s largest copper mine, may boost copper output from existing operations 65 percent by 2020, according to a report from Deutsche Bank AG.

Australia Considering Mine Tax Changes, Financial Review Reports

Australia’s federal government is considering changes to its proposed mining profits tax, including altering the A$50 million threshold where it begins, the Australian Financial Review reported, citing an unnamed government official. Mining companies are seeking changes to the proposed tax and held meetings with the government’s policy transition group in Perth yesterday, according to the report.

IRC Halves IPO Size to About $240 Million, E-Mail Says

IRC Ltd., the iron ore unit of Petropavlovsk Plc, more than halved the size of its initial public offering in Hong Kong to about $240 million, according to a sales document.

Bradford Sees Value in Alcoa Shares on Global Recovery: Video

Charles Bradford, a partner at Affiliated Research Group LLC, a New York-based consulting firm, talks about Alcoa Inc.’s financial results and growth outlook.

Alumina Shares Gain After Partner Alcoa Tops Profit Projections

Alumina Ltd. rose to its highest level in nine months in Sydney trading after partner Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported third-quarter profit that topped analysts’ expectations.

Queensland’s Record Rain Prompts Coal Supply Concern, UBS Says

Queensland’s wettest September in 100 years has prompted concern that further rainfall may crimp coal output from the Australian state and drive up prices, according to a report from UBS AG.

Trapped Miners’ Ordeal Nears End in Chile as Drill Bores Down

Chile’s government is making final preparations to rescue 33 miners trapped half a mile underground as engineers predicted that drills boring into the earth will reach the men by tomorrow.

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold on Track for a Fourth Weekly Advance as Dollar Retreats

Gold headed for a fourth weekly advance as the dollar retreated, boosting demand for precious metals as a store of value. Silver was on track for its best weekly run in more than four years.

Gold May Rise on Demand for Currency Alternative, Survey Shows

Gold, which rose to a record this week, may extend its advance on demand for an alternative to currencies, a survey found.

AGRICULTURE: Corn Heads for Biggest Weekly Advance in Almost Four Months

Corn advanced, heading for the biggest weekly gain in almost four months, on speculation the U.S. may cut its crop estimates after floods and hot weather damaged plants. Rice was poised for the longest winning streak in almost three years.

Palm Oil Climbs to Two-Year High as Weak Dollar Boosts Demand

Palm oil climbed to the highest level in more than two years as a weak dollar increased the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation and as rival soybean oil advanced on increased Asian demand.

Malaysia Lowers 2010 Crude Palm Oil Output Forecast, Times Says

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board lowered its crude palm oil output forecast for this year to 17.6 million metric tons from 18.1 million tons due to lower oil extraction rates as harvesting has been disrupted by heavier rainfall, the Business Times reported, citing Director-General Mohd Basri Wahid.

China Starts Hunting for Domestic Potash Reserves, Xinhua Says

China plans to spend 100 million yuan ($15 million) a year to explore for potash reserves in the country in the next five years, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing an unidentified official with China Geological Survey.

Australia Recommends Cuts to Key Farmland Irrigation

Irrigation in the Murray-Darling Basin should be cut by as much as 37 percent to protect the environment in a drought-prone region that is home to almost half of Australia’s farms, according to a government-commissioned report today.

Agrium A$1.2 Billion Bid for AWB Fair, Lonergan Edwards Says

Agrium Inc.’s A$1.2 billion ($1.2 billion) bid for AWB Ltd., Australia’s largest wheat exporter, is in the best interests of shareholders, according to an independent expert report.

Rice Production in South Korea May Drop 12 Percent This Year

South Korea’s rice production may decrease by 12 percent this year as rice area fell and reduced sunshine hours because of rainfall hurt yields, according to a state agency report.

Rabobank Maintains Australian Wheat Crop Forecast for 2010-11

Australian wheat production may reach 22 million to 23 million metric tons this harvest, Rabobank said in an e-mailed report today, leaving its outlook unchanged from a report last month.

SOFT COMMODITIES: Sugar Futures May Rise on Tight Supply in Brazil, Survey Shows

Sugar futures may rise on concern that dry weather and port delays will curb shipments from Brazil, the world’s biggest producer, according to a survey.

Rubber in Tokyo Drops on Strong Yen; Shanghai Sets 2-Year High

Rubber in Tokyo retreated from a more than five-month peak after Japan’s currency surged against the dollar, weakening the appeal of yen-based contracts. Shanghai futures set a two-year high after a week-long holiday.

Cotton in the U.S. Jumps 3.4% to $1.0725, Extending Surge

Cotton prices jumped by as much as 3.4 percent to $1.0725 a pound on ICE Futures U.S., extending yesterday’s 4 percent gain.

ECONOMIES: Unemployment Probably Climbed as U.S. Companies Limited Hiring

Unemployment probably climbed in September for a second consecutive month as slower U.S. growth prompted companies to limit hiring, economists said before a report today.

Greenspan Says U.S. Creating ‘Scary’ Deficit as Borrowing Rises

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. fiscal deficit is “scary” and the federal government needs to cut spending on entitlements.

Australia Should Reduce Energy Intensity 30% by 2020, Study Says

Australia should target a 30 percent improvement in energy intensity by 2020, according to a government report released today by Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s Task Group on Energy Efficiency.

Australian Job Boom Sends Immigration ‘Wake-Up Call’

Australia’s surging job market, capping its strongest quarter since 2006, signals the government may need to retreat from a campaign pledge to slow population growth as the central bank tries to control inflation.

India Doesn’t Plan to Restrict Foreign Investment

India’s government doesn’t need to restrict foreign institutional investment and foreign direct investment at this time, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said after the rupee climbed to near a two-year high.

Kan’s Cabinet Approves $62 Billion Japan Stimulus

Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s cabinet endorsed a 5.1 trillion yen ($62 billion) stimulus plan for Japan to safeguard an economic recovery and help local governments and small businesses cope with the surging yen.

OTHER MARKETS: Oil Reverses Losses as Dollar Drop Boosts Commodities Buying

Oil reversed losses in New York as the dollar fell against the euro, increasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Rain Propels Argentine Bonds Past Pakistan: Argentina Credit

Rainfall is producing record soybean crops in Argentina, boosting the economy and bond market. In Pakistan, it’s creating deadly floods and hurting the nation’s credit.

Trichet on ‘Battlefield’ Edge as Policy Propels Euro to $1.40

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is bucking the global push toward easier monetary policy, fueling the euro’s advance just as finance chiefs convene in Washington amid concern of a “currency war.”

Asia’s Reserves Rising at Fastest Pace in History, DBS Says

Asia has attracted $2 billion of capital inflows daily since April 2009 and its foreign reserves have risen “significantly faster than any time in history,” according to DBS Group Holdings Ltd.

TIPS 30-Year Inflation Rate Highest Since June on Fed Outlook

Treasury 30-year bonds are yielding the most relative to inflation-protected debt since June as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be successful in pushing up prices with further purchases of government bonds.