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Aluminum May Advance 5.4%, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum may extend its biggest monthly increase in a year and climb 5.4 percent to $2,333 a metric ton, Commerzbank AG’s technical analyst Karen Jones said, citing trading patterns.

The world’s second most-used metal has completed an “ascending triangle” by closing above $2,043 a ton last week, signaling further gains, London-based Jones said. The formation is a right-angle triangle that usually emerges during an uptrend as a continuation pattern.

“The triangle offers potential for a move to $2,258,” she said in a report. That would be the highest level since April 30. “We can go beyond that level. The next level would be the 200-weekly moving average at $2,333,” she said.

Three-month delivery aluminum on the London Metal Exchange, which advanced 10 percent in July, traded at $2,213 a ton at 10:06 a.m. in Singapore and is down 0.8 percent this year. The metal is used in industries from packaging to aerospace.

Declines will find interim support at $2,043 a ton and should be contained by the $1,961 support line, the report said. The stance is neutral to positive, it said.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Resistance points are marked by clusters of orders to sell, while supports are the reverse of that.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at Kkim19@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net

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