The dollar fell against the euro in the last month as negative data surprises out of the U.S. compared unfavorably with positive data surprises from the euro region, according to Deutsche Bank AG’s Jim Reid.
“On this measure U.S. data has fallen off a cliff relative to expectations in recent weeks,” Reid said in an e-mailed note today. “The euro-area data hasn’t been as negative relative to expectations. This perhaps explains the recent strength of the euro and the change in focus from EU problems to U.S. data.”
U.S. economic data surprised to the downside since June 10, falling to minus 33.5 last week, according to an index compiled by Citigroup Inc. Euro-region data surprised to the upside since April 16, and was at positive 44.3, a Citigroup index shows.