Colin Hamilton, a London-based analyst with Macquarie Group Ltd., comments by phone on the effect on the coking-coal market of explosions at a Siberian mine operated by OAO Raspadskaya.
The blasts on May 8 and yesterday killed at least 30 people, and another 60 remain underground, Russia’s emergencies minister said today.
“They don’t really export much from Russia. A lot of the material is sold within Russia itself. The effect on the global market is likely to be limited, but it will have an effect on the Russian market.”
“We expect the market to be in deficit this year, perhaps 10 million tons in the seaborne market. Next year is slightly moving closer to balance, at about 3 to 4 million tons deficit, but something has to give.”
“We have that deficit for two years, and then I don’t think stocks will cover that. So crude-steel production could be constrained, and you could see Chinese imports drop away in the short term.”
“The rest of the world is coming back, and steel production is just below 2008 levels and China’s continuing to grow.”