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Rupiah to Fall 7.6% Versus Yen on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis

The rupiah may slide 7.6 percent against the yen in the next two weeks to the lowest level since March 4 after Indonesia’s currency failed to hold a key level of resistance, according to Okasan Securities Co.

The rupiah may slip to a low of 105.2538 versus the yen from 97.2950 as of 12:59 p.m. in Jakarta, said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and foreign-exchange dealer at Okasan in Tokyo. He cited a set of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence for his forecast. The rupiah has risen 6.6 percent in the past two months.

Indonesia’s currency has traded around 97.1724 since March 31, which represents a 61.8 percent retracement of its drop from a high of 71.0106 in May 2007 to a low of 139.4970 in November 2008. The level of 105.2538 is a 50 percent reversal on the chart.

“The pace of the rupiah’s appreciation against the yen was pretty fast recently, and so the rupiah will probably see a downward correction,” Soma said in an interview. “The rupiah failed to break the 61.8 percent resistance and will pull back for some time before resuming its upward trend.”

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Other Fibonacci points are 23.6, 61.8 and 76.4 percent. A resistance level is where orders to sell the rupiah may be clustered.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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