Editor's note: This column is adapted from a recent e-mail Calacanis sent to his e-mail subscriber list.
Unemployment in the U.S. is going to race past 10% in the coming months and probably peak at 11% or 12%, according to the smart folks with whom I'm privileged enough to spend some time. There's an outside chance (call it 20%) that we might have a "disastrous event" that causes it to hit 15% to 20%. Sounds impossible, I know, but there are many regions in the U.S. already in the mid-teens.
The smarter folks whom I speak with think the recent market rally is "dead cat bounce" in nature and that we're "testing the top" before a return to the bottom. Who the heck knows what's going to happen with the stock market? What I want to talk about today is your employment—or employee—market. The stock market is the 10,000-foot view, but butts in chairs working? That's the 10-foot view. Let's stay micro in this essay, shall we?
Witness: We just put out a job for an entry-level researcher and had 200 résumés from highly qualified candidates in under 24 hours. We posted the gig at $10 an hour. Recent searches for a director of product and various sales positions at my company, Mahalo, resulted in 400-plus applications per position in a week. My In-box is flooded with really great folks desperate for a lead on a gig ("Hey, Jason, we've met a couple of times. I've been working in the Internet since 1997 and I was laid off in October…") My heart goes out to everyone who is stuck, or up against it, right now. I've been there; it sucks.
Anyway, let's cut the small talk get to the big pink (slip) elephant in the room: who gets laid off—and who gets hired—in a down market.
Over the past 15 years, as a CEO and entrepreneur, I've hired well over 500 people, laid off over 50, fired a couple dozen bad apples (many of whom are on my e-mail subscriber list!), and actually helped make a handful of people millionaires. Before I ran my own company, and even while running my companies, I've received countless job offers.
Bottom line: I've been around the block, and I know exactly why people get hired and fired.
Before the recession hit, I was actually convinced that my techniques for hiring could land almost any willing candidate a job. In this current mess, I can't make any guarantees, but I can definitely tell candidates that if they follow my advice, they'll have a much stronger chance at landing their dream job. For employers, I promise you that these tests and techniques will land you more killers then duds.
In each of my points below, I'm going to start with an overview and then move on to a "For Candidates" section and a "For Employers" section. I'm really blending two essays into one here so that each party can understand the other's perspective. I hope this isn't too confusing, but you guys understand that sometimes I ramble before getting to something worthwhile.
For Candidates: People Who Work Harder Win
Wait, don't give up on me yet! I'm well aware that this first point is absurdly obvious, but for some reason, many folks overlook or discount this basic fact. The truth is, hard work pays off in almost all things: sports, education, relationships, and work.
The more you put into something, the better it tends to work out. (Brilliant observation, I know.)
If you're looking for a job, you want to send out as many signals as possible that show that not only are you not afraid of hard work, but you're actually turned on by it. You must understand that, right now, there are too many candidates fighting for each position. The leverage that led to bidding wars between employers two to three years ago is gone—just like the bidding wars over houses are over.
There is no sense in fighting the balance of power. In fact, you need to embrace it, because it will flip again in a couple of years.
The best way to signal that you're hardworking is to explain your routine and method for working explicitly to your employer. As someone who does a couple of hundred interviews a year, I can tell you I almost never get a proactive candidate who does this!
If I were coming into a meeting with me looking for a job, here is the script I would follow:
Candidate: "Thanks so much for having me in to discuss filling the role of VP of BlahBlah. May I tell you how I've been able to make an impact at the companies I've worked at before?" (Translation: "I'm confident I can fill this position. That's why I didn't put the word 'possibly' in front of 'filling the role.'")
Employer: "Certainly." (Translation: "Thank the Lord! Finally, a candidate with whom I don't have to pull teeth!")
Candidate: "My belief is that hard work—not busy work, but hard work—is what differentiates the teams that win from those that lose. My method for working is that I like to prepare for the week on Sunday. I read up in the trades on where the industry is on the weekend, and I prepare a game plan for myself for the week ahead. This only takes an hour or two. Just a simple list of some goals I want to achieve and what I think will help the company reach its goals: I make it a point to get into the office on Monday an hour or two early. This gives me a chance to get an even bigger jump on the week—something I believe is very important. I tend to do working lunches with clients or hit the gym to get myself thinking. Finally, I've made a philosophy of not leaving the office until my boss does…. I think that's the honorable thing to do."
Employer: "When can you start?"
Seriously, I've been waiting for someone to say that to me for a decade, and it still hasn't happened. Now, I'm not saying folks can't have a life and family—let's not start that whole controversy up—but in a market like this, people seriously are going to need to sacrifice.
Bottom line: Employers are going to hire the hardest-working people and lay off the clock punchers first in an economy like this (as they should). If you want to get employed, your best strategy is to put yourself into the hardest-working bucket.
For Employers: How to Spot the Hardworking People
Wouldn't you just love to fill your open sales, marketing, or operations position with a candidate who gave you that speech above?
Yeah, me too. Too bad it never happens! You're going to have to figure out exactly who the hardest-working and most resilient people are when you're hiring. You have only a certain number of slots on your team, and you'd better start looking at it just like that.
You cannot—and you will not—give one of your few remaining slots to anyone who is not going to bust their ass. If you do that, your company is fracked. Period. You have to be cutthroat in an environment like this, because you're not doing anyone any good if you bring on—or keep on—a weak team member. Those folks can, and will, sink the entire ship in a market like this.
Let the weak people collect unemployment while the strong folks create strong companies that create more positions. (Positions that will, ironically, go to the weaker members of the herd.)
So, how do you find out if someone is a killer? Here are some of my favorite things to ask in an interview:
1. Do you live to work or work to live?
2. Do you consider yourself a workaholic? Do you think there is anything wrong with being a workaholic?
3. Are you able to turn it off at 6 p.m. and on Friday for the weekend? You don't get obsessed by work, do you? (Trick question!)
4. Do you consider yourself a balanced person?
5. How would you feel if we all needed to come in on the weekend to make a deadline?
6. How would you feel if this happened two weekends in a row?
7. It's a tough time right now, and we're super short-staffed—how would you feel if I asked you to cover for [insert job lower than candidate's experience] when they're on vacation?
8. Speaking of vacation, do you bring your BlackBerry and laptop with you to check in? Or do you like to unplug completely?
These types of questions will quickly get you to the point of understanding the kind of person you're dealing with. There are folks who work to live, and that's just fine. However, it might not be fine for your company at this time. In a hot market, you might deal with a clock puncher, because the people who really kill it are in short supply. However, in a market like this, you should start with the killers and work your way down to the clock punchers.
Hey, wait a second…are you anti-family and life/work balance?
If folks hate their day job and want to get out at 5:01 p.m., sure, go for it. I just think it's better to find a job you're super-passionate about, so you don't feel like running out at 5 on the dot. Also, you have to keep in mind the backdrop in which I'm writing this piece: an economic tsunami that we haven't seen in our lifetimes, or our parents' lifetimes, for that matter.
In this market, it's going to be a lot worse for families if Mommy or Daddy doesn't have a job than if Mommy or Daddy has to work late. This is not playtime, everyone—this is real time.
Bottom line: Employers should focus on the hard workers first so their companies survive long enough to hire the 9-to-5ers!
For Candidates: Establish That You Can Move the Needle
In my mind, there are three basic types of people in the world: people who make it, people who sell it, and people who support those first two groups. If you're a developer or designer, you're obviously making the product. If you're in sales, you're obviously selling the product. CEOs, COOs, accountants, and administrators obviously support those groups.
Folks who are most dispensable in this market are the folks who are not directly selling (i.e. bringing in money) or making the product:
1. Marketers/Public Relations
3. Business Development
4. Product Managers
5. Managers in General
Like you, I've watched layoff after layoff at companies, and the first groups that get cut are the ones that the business can survive without. If you cut a couple of project managers, PR people, and your strategy folks, the business keeps running.
Does it run as well? Perhaps not. But it survives—and that's what matters in a market like this.
In fact, Google GOOG could cut half of its staff tomorrow and its revenue and earnings would be exactly the same, in my estimation. Would it be building cool new stuff? No. Would it be as effective? Probably not. However, its revenue machine (text-based ads) doesn't require this huge staff.
This is all really depressing stuff, I know, but I'm not telling you this to get you depressed. No, I'm telling you this to help you get your next job! If you want to get one of the small number of positions that will open up in 2009/2010, you need to place yourself in the "high-impact" bucket of employees, not the "low-impact" positions.
If you do strategy, marketing, and business development, I suggest positioning yourself in sales.
If you do product management or are a midlevel manger, I suggest positioning yourself as "player/coach"—someone who does a bunch of work and manages people in their "spare" time.
For Employers: Hire Impact Players
As I've mentioned above, you have a small number of positions opening, and you need to be very selective. Once you've narrowed your pool down to the folks you think are the hardest-working, you need to do another round of figuring out the folks who are the smartest and most versatile.
It's great that someone wants to work hard, but do they have direct experience closing a client? Do they have direct experience leading the building of an actual product that makes it to market and is embraced by customers?
Here are some very basic questions I like to ask folks in an interview. (Have I interviewed you? How was it for you?):
1. Who are the top three clients you've worked for? (This could be internal or external.)
2. What problem did you solve for these three clients?
3. How long did you work for these clients?
4. Can I have the names of these clients as references?
5. What was the best product/service you ever created/sold and why?
6. What was the most disappointing product/service you ever created/sold and why? What did you take away from that?
If folks can't answer these types of questions quickly and sharply, it might mean they had one of those "soft jobs" where they didn't have to produce a product that absolutely delighted customers. Every position serves a customer in some way: The mailroom guy serves the people getting the mail, the IT person serves the people who bring her frozen laptops, and the CEO has to deal with a range of "customers" in the form of investors, partners, employees, and board members.
This is a long and obvious way of saying that you need folks who can get stuff done.
If you're one of the 17 folks who made it to the bottom, I'm wondering the following:
1. What's your best technique for getting hired?
2. What are your favorite interview questions for figuring out if you're hiring a winner or a clock puncher?
3. What's going on in your backyard? What are you seeing in terms of hiring and laying people off? Who's getting let go and who's getting hired?
Note: Three ways to answer these questions:
1. You can email me
2. You can answer this question over at Mahalo Answers in an open fashion by following this URL: http://digg.com/u17Rc (You can log into Mahalo Answers with your Facebook ID, so it's super easy. Yes, this is a backhanded way to get you to try my product. Hey, I'm a hustler, baby! Hate the game, not the player!)
3. You can post a comment in the discussion section below.