Analyst Actions: Tibco Software, Guess, SAIC

Analyst Actions: Tibco Software, Guess, SAIC


Friedman Billings analyst David Hilal says Tibco Software's (TIBX) second quarter revenue guidance of $147-$149 million is below his and consensus view of $155 million. He adds license revenue forecast of $56-$57 million is significantly below his $66 million view.

Hilal says TIBX cited deal slippage late in the quarter and weakness in Americas. He says he also attributes the shortfall to decreased demand for TIBX products and intense competitive pressure.

Due to both firm-specific issues (lower demand for solutions and increased competition) and a tough economic environment, he thinks it will be challenging for TIBX to deliver good results on consistent basis. He cuts $0.45 fiscal year 2008 (November) EPS view to $0.39, and $0.53 for fiscal year 2009 to $0.49.

He keeps market perform and 8.00 price target on the stock.


Needham analyst Christine Chen says Guess? (GES) first quarter EPS blows through her estimate and consensus. She sees long-term growth fueled by international opportunities, licensing, and U.S. retail square footage growth.

Chen believes the company should continue to surprise investors in fiscal year 2009 (January), based on strong fundamentals, fashion-right merchandise, likely continued sales momentum and margin improvement in each of company's business segments.

She raises $2.47 fiscal year 2009 EPS estimate to $2.53, and $3.11 fiscal year 2010 to $3.13. She says the shares are trading at substantial discount to GES's long-term organic growth rate of 20%-30% and 5-year historical p-e ratio of about 24.

Chen reiterates strong buy and 62 target price.


Pacific Crest analyst Erik Olbeter says SAIC's (SAI) $0.25 first quarter EPS on $2.37 billion in sales handily beat consensus estimates of $0.22 and $2.27 billion. He says bookings were strong at $2.5 billion, up 67% year-over-year. Also, new wins were very strong at $1.676 billion, and backlog was strong at $15.1 billion.

Olbeter notes the beat was predicated on much stronger growth in the government intelligence business, margin improvement on government contracts (to about 8% overall), and a decline in SG&A. He says recent contract wins show positive momentum.

He raises his fiscal year 2009 (January) and fiscal year 2010 sales and EPS estimates to reflect the first quarter beat and strong new bookings; fiscal year 2009 EPS rises to $1.08 from $1.05 and fiscal 2010 to $1.20 from $1.19, respectively. He raises his 24 price target to 25.

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