Well, Tim, Alien Technology priced its IPO this week. If the deal gets done within the proposed price range--and if your bet still stands--you're going to owe someone $10 to $12 (the price of one share). Of course, the company now expects to raise a maximum of $124.2 million, which is $13.8 million less than it had originally anticipated. Although I think the deal will happen, it clearly won't be the "scorcher" I had predicted. What has changed since my prediction? One word: Vonage. The Internet phone company's tepid IPO in May threw a wet blanket over speculative concept plays like Alien, which lost $34 million on revenues of $10 million in the six months ended April 1. In other words, several quarters of positive earnings on meaningful revenue are still minimum criteria for a successful IPO in the post-bubble world. And that's probably as it should be.
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