John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif., says new home sales are worse than the Census Bureau says. Here's an excerpt from the company's newsletter, which came out today:
Relying on data without understanding the methodology can lead to wrong conclusions. For example, the Census Bureau is reporting that new home sales are only down 6% from one year ago, which we know is incorrect. For accurate new home sales estimates, see the press releases of publicly traded home builders – all of whom are reporting sales (orders) that are down 20% - 40% from one year ago. The NAHB Housing Market Index, as well as almost every industry source we contact each month, supports the fact that sales are down 20%+ from one year ago in more than 70% of the markets we track (Texas, the Carolinas, Georgia and New Mexico are some of the major exceptions).
Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE