The night of August 29, I went on CNN International and explained to a global audience how Katrina really wasn't going to affect the economy very much (remember, that was before everyone realized that New Orleans had completely flooded). A couple of days later (I don't remember the exact date), I went back on CNN-I to recant my previous optimism, and explain how the economy was going to be hit hard by high energy prices and transportation disruptions.

Now it looks like the hurricane didn't have that much of an effect. The unemployment rate is 5.0%, barely above where it was in mid-August. Productivity rose at a 4.1% rate in the third quarter, and GDP grew at a 3.8% rate.

What's the moral of this story? I'm not sure. Maybe I should stop making spot forecasts on TV (and save them for my blog?).

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE