By Paul Cherney
"Markets are never wrong; opinions are." A famous speculator during the first half of the 20th century, Jesse Livermore, is credited with uttering that phrase.
Why is it important? Because regardless of what opinions are about the effects of energy and the Fed's monetary policy, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 broke out of their six-day trading ranges on Thursday. A standard charting technique is to add the difference between the highs and the lows of the trading range to the break-out point, that would create potential upside targets of 1239 for the S&P 500 and 2171 for the Nasdaq. But markets don't always follow chartists' rules for breakout targets.
This is the end of the quarter and money mangers earn their management fees by calculating the value of assets under management, marked to the market as of the close of the quarter (Friday); some people think this represents inspiration to support prices. Friday should see a little extension higher, but Monday might see some retracement.
• The Nasdaq has resistance 2149-2162.14 resistance thickens 2155-2162.14, resistance is formidable 2177-2186.83.
• S&P 500 resistance is 1232.15-1236.49. The index has formidable resistance 1229-1242.62, the overlap represents a focus of resistance 1229-1236.49.
• Nasdaq immediate intraday support is 2132.60-2124.28.
• Nasdaq major support is 2106-2039.
• The S&P 500 has immediate intraday support 1225.61-1218.99.
• The S&P 500 has major support 1206-1165 with a focus of support 1206-1183. This is a very strong layer of support and is expected to hold if tested again.
Cherney is president of Cherney Market Analysis