Mapping the Road to the White House

How did BusinessWeek Online's state-by-state guide to the likely electoral vote count do? It was right on the money

By Richard S. Dunham

It's over. President Bush has ended up the master of the Electoral Map. One day after the balloting closed, the Republican incumbent has wrapped up 274 electoral votes, John Kerry secured 252, and two states with 12 electoral votes are still too close to call, though the President has a lead in nearly complete counting.

In the end, Bush won all of the 27 states in which he was leading in the final BusinessWeek Online preelection Electoral Map published on Nov. 1. Democrat Kerry took the 18 states where he had an advantage in the last map. Bush has won two of the undecided states -- the megaprizes of Florida and Ohio -- and maintains small leads in two other former toss-ups, Iowa and New Mexico. The Massachusetts senator came from behind to win the fifth toss-up prize, Wisconsin.

SOON ENOUGH.

  Clearly President Bush did well. So how did yours truly do? The final BusinessWeek Online prediction correctly assigned 45 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia to their eventual winner. And all five toss-ups went down to the wire, with only Florida being decided by a margin of more than 2 percentage points. Check out our final preelection map to see how close we got it.

The counting of "provisional ballots" will continue for weeks, and the final results won't be official until early December. But the nation knows who won. It has been an exciting year, full of twists and turns, passion and venom. We can all be glad that the next Presidential campaign won't start for, what, 18 months?

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
California 55
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
D.C. 3
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Hawaii 4
Idaho 4
Illinois 21
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
New York 31
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Vermont 3
Virginia 13
Washington 11
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3

Dunham is Washington Outlook editor for BusinessWeek

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