A Post-Fed Pullback?

Historical odds favor a give-back of some of Tuesday's gains and a negative close on Wednesday for the S&P 500

By Paul Cherney

I was wrong about a down day on Tuesday, Oct. 28, and Tuesday's price action was strong enough to improve end-of-day momentum indicators to positive. This is an improvement that should have lingering effects, but it does not mean that every day will be a gainer.

Based on observations dating to January, 2001 (when the Fed started cutting rates in this cycle), odds are 3 in 4 of seeing a give-back of some of today's gains and a negative close on Wednesday for the S&P 500.

Short-term downside risk would increase if the VXO (market volatility index) moved above the 18.42 level.

Nasdaq resistance is now 1,930-1,966.87, with layers at 1,934-1,944 and 1,941-1,953. The next layers of resistance are 1,979-2,011.25 and 2,042-2,073.

The S&P 500 has only one layer of immediate resistance: 1,047-1,053.79, with a focus at 1,047-1,050.11. After that, resistance is 1,068-1,106 with thick, brick-wall style resistance at 1,068-1,090.

Immediate Nasdaq support is 1,923-1,907.

The S&P 500 has supports at 1,036-1,026 and 1,028-1,023.93.

Expectations for closes of 1,068 or higher for the S&P 500, and 1,988 or higher for the Nasdaq, both before Dec. 8, are strengthening.

Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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