J.P. Morgan Keeps 'Overweight' on Biovail

Analyst Corey Davis says the FDA approved the company's once-daily depression drug marginally ahead of his Sept. 3 expectations

J.P. Morgan reiterates its overweight rating on Biovail (BVF ).

Analyst Corey Davis says Biovail and GlaxoSmithKline reported FDA approval for Wellbutrin XL in 150mg and 300mg doses, marginally ahead of his Sept. 3 expectations. He estimates Biovail's Wellbutrin XL revenues at $84.8 million in 2003, and $210.5 million in 2004; with a 2% tax rate, Wellbutrin XL contributes roughly 42 cents to his $2.35 2003 earnings per share estimate, and $1.02 to his $2.88 2004 earnings per share estimate.

David thinks Biovail's very low p-e of 17 (vs. the group's p-e of 25) should rapidly expand as a result of today's news. Davis' $54 target is based on achieving a p-e of 19 in 2004 -- even less than the specialty pharma group's average p-e of 20.

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