By Paul Cherney
End-of-day price momentum models based on both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have lost their positive biases; they are technically neutral, but this represents a weakening.
The upcoming week is the last full week of trading before the end of the quarter and the end of the half year. Money managers are paid based on assets under management, marked to the market as of the close on Monday June 30 (the last day of the quarter); they have a vested interest in supporting prices, so any dips in price next week will probably be treated as buying opportunities.
Resistance: The S&P 500 has immediate intraday resistance at 997-1003, then 1010-1015.12. The bigger picture of resistance which was established by price action in June, 2002, is that the S&P 500 has a band of resistance at 1008-1041, with a focus of 1020-1031.
The Nasdaq has immediate intraday resistance at 1658-1669, then 1678.80-1685.04. The Nasdaq's chart resistance from a year ago is 1660-1684, with a focus of resistance at 1667-1682. Next resistance is 1697-1759, with a focus of 1713-1735.
Support: The Nasdaq has support at 1642-1622.99, 1619-1610, then 1603-1584. If the index were to simply return to test the price levels at the time of the huge volume was coming into the market it would mean a visit to 1620-1565.
Immediate intraday support for the S&P 500 is 995-984, then overlapping at 989-972. If the index were to simply return to test the price levels at the time of the huge volume was coming into the market it would mean a visit to 973-946.
Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's