A Post-Holiday Pop?

Since 1986, the trend has been for a positive close on the Friday after Thanksgiving

By Paul Cherney

Please note: Paul Cherney will be on vacation Friday, Nov. 23 and Monday, Nov. 26. His column will resume Tuesday, Nov. 27.

The Friday after Thanksgiving will see a 1:00 pm EST close for the equity markets. The day is usually the lowest single day volume of the year, so it carries very little signficance. Historically, since 1986, there is a 10 in 15 chance of a positive close on the Friday after Thanksgiving (67% chance of a higher close), but the gains on the day are usually under half of a percentage point which would equate to a little less than 6 S&P 500 points. The Nasdaq is about twice as volatile as the S&P 500 so the price change might be 18 or 20 points.

The S&P 500 has "brick wall" resistance (1153-1200). Immediate support is 1141-1130 then 1134-1122, which makes the 1134-1130 area a focus of support. Substantial intermediate term support starts in the 1110-1096 area.

Immediate resistance for the Nasdaq is 1879-1905. Immediate support is 1848-1829. The index has substantial intermediate term support at 1800-1646.

Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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