By Paul Cherney
If the S&P 500 closes above the 1123 level, then I was wrong about this price action simply being a sideways consolidation before weaker prices follow. A close above the 1123 level would force me to view the sideways consolidation of the past 10 trade days as a potential launching pad for higher prices, not a sideways exhaustion of buying power.
If the S&P 500 moves above the 1107.12 level then 1107-1089 becomes immediate support. The next level of resistance is 1114-1135.52. resistance becomes thick with prints of 1123 and higher.
Major resistance (brick wall, based on end of day data) for the S&P 500 is 1153-1199 (not expected to be tested in this upleg unless there is a powerfully positive headline related to the War on Terrorism or technical conditions improve.)
An S&P 500 close under 1090.57 would increase odds for additional downside risk. The last time this system fired was June 28, 2001. Downside risk was 4.3% on a print basis and 3.3% on a closing basis. If the S&P 500 duplicated the percentage move it made after the June 28 signal, it would mean an S&P 500 low print near 1043.89, an S&P 500 low close near 1054.36 sometime within the first three to seven trade days after the close below 1090.57. (History never repeats exactly. This signal has not fired yet because the S&P 500 has not closed under 1090.57.)
The Nasdaq has immediate support 1754-1722.
The Nasdaq has major resistance 1782-1934. Resistance becomes thicker with prints of 1825-1887.
Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's