Odds Favor More Weakness

Be wary of any opening move higher in Tuesday's session

By Paul Cherney

Unless there is a headline of undeniably bullish importance overnight, I would be reluctant to embrace any opening move higher in Tuesday's session as the beginning of a protracted (intraday) move higher. When a major index closes at or near the worst levels of the session, opening strength usually runs out of momentum within the first 20-30 minutes of trading then prices usually rollover and the indexes will probably print negative numbers.

Intraday indicators which combine price and volume hit levels in Monday's session which increase the odds that there will be another day of lower closes for the Nasdaq on Tuesday.

This is option expiration week and quite often what happens on Tuesday can be reversed on Wednesday.

In an ideal world (if we are going to see an attempt to extend the rebound which occurred on Thursday, then buyers have to support prices (closing basis for Tuesday) at Nasdaq 1996 (or higher) and S&P 500 1193 (or higher).

The Nasdaq has (intraday) resistance 2038-2046 then 2069-2105 with a focus 2069-2083. The next resistance is a brick wall at 2137-2181.05.

The Nasdaq has support 2003-1971.

Immediate S&P 500 resistance remains 1207-1218. There is a brick wall of resistance in the 1227-1240 area.

Immediate S&P 500 support is now 1202-1184 then 1170-1139.

Cherney is Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's

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