Robertson Stephens Cuts Four Seasons Rating

Analyst Harry Curtis thinks demand for deluxe hotels is slowing

Robertson Stephens downgraded Four Seasons (FS ) to long-term market performer from attractive.

Analyst Harry Curtis says the downgrade is based on the negative outlook for demand in the lodging industry. In view of an incremental negative supply/demand imbalance for the deluxe segment, Curtis expects weaker revenue per available room, or RevPAR, growth. He cut his $1.98 2000 EPS estimate to $1.95, and cut his $2.38 2001 EPS estimate to $2.32. Curtis thinks consensus estimates also are likely to decline. In light of his concerns, he thinks there is a risk to the hotelier's current valuation of 30 times his 2001 EPS estimate. Curtis also reduced his industry-wide 2001 RevPAR estimate to 2%-3% from 4%, on the belief that sluggish real GDP growth is likely to continue for the first half of 2001.

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