The production index was down in the week ended Dec. 26. Before calculation of the four-week moving average, the index also fell, to 141.8 from 142.9 in the previous week. After seasonal adjustment, output of coal, lumber, and rail-freight traffic were down--mostly due to the typical holiday week volatility and, in the case of lumber, weather problems in the Pacific Northwest. Output of steel, autos, trucks, electric power, and crude oil increased.

LEADING INDICATORS LATEST WEEK YEARLY WEEK AGO % CHG STOCK PRICES (12/31) S&P 500 1229.23 1231.93 26.1

CORPORATE BOND YIELD, Aaa (12/31) 6.23% 6.37% -7.0

MONEY SUPPLY, M2 (12/21) billions $4,425.1 $4,406.4r 9.3

INITIAL CLAIMS, UNEMPLOYMENT (12/25) thous. 368 289r 16.5

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, PURCHASE (1/1) 249.0 279.8 6.4 MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, REFINANCE (1/1) 1,468.5 1,441.3 51.0

Sources: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Federal Reserve, Labor Dept., Mortgage Bankers Assn. (Index: March 16, 1990=100)

INTEREST RATES LATEST WEEK YEAR WEEK AGO AGO FEDERAL FUNDS (1/5) 4.54% 4.88% 5.35%

COMMERCIAL PAPER (1/5) 3-month 4.80 5.03 5.51

CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT (1/6) 3-month 4.93 5.20 5.58

FIXED MORTGAGE (1/1) 30-year 6.99 6.91 7.26

ADJUSTABLE MORTGAGE (1/1) one-year 5.75 5.73 5.75

PRIME (1/1) 7.75 7.75 8.50

Sources: Federal Reserve, HSH Associates, Bloomberg Financial Markets

PRODUCTION INDICATORS
                                                     LATEST      WEEK     YEARLY
                                                      WEEK       AGO      % CHG
      STEEL (1/2) thous. of net tons                  1,784     1,838#    -20.4
      AUTOS (1/2) units                                   0    70,442r#     NM
      TRUCKS (1/2) units                                  0    87,361r#     NM
      ELECTRIC POWER (1/2) millions of kilowatt-hrs. 64,171    65,747#      3.6
      CRUDE-OIL REFINING (1/2) thous. of bbl./day    15,350    14,927#      3.3
      COAL (12/26) thous. of net tons                15,104#   22,580     -11.5
      LUMBER (12/26) millions of ft.                  245.8#    489.4     -14.9
      RAIL FREIGHT                                    1;9.2#     28.0      -5.4
      Sources: American Iron & Steel Institute, Ward's Automotive Reports, Edison
      Electric Institute, American Petroleum Institute, Energy Dept., WWPA1, SFPA2,
      Association of American Railroads
      
      PRICES
                                             LATEST      WEEK       YEARLY
                                              WEEK        AGO       % CHG
      GOLD (1/6) $/troy oz.                   287.650    286.950     2.1
      STEEL SCRAP (1/5) #1 heavy, $/ton        84.00     85.50     -41.5
      COPPER (1/1) cents/lb.                   69.6      68.6      -13.0
      ALUMINUM (1/1 cents/lb.                  60.0      59.5      -18.4
      COTTON (1/1) strict low middling
         1-1/16 in., cents/lb.                 58.47     59.67      -8.4
      OIL (1/5) $/bbl.                          11.85     11.25    -28.8
      CRB FOODSTUFFS (1/5) 1967=100            201.63    196.14    -12.7
      CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS (1/5) 1967=100       263.47    263.32    -13.3
      Sources: London Wednesday final setting, Chicago market, Metals Week, Memphis
      market, NYMEX, Commodity Research Bureau
      
      FOREIGN EXCHANGE
                                          LATEST      WEEK    YEAR
                                          WEEK        AGO      AGO
      BRAZILIAN REAL (1/6)               1.2089      1.2079     1.1171
      BRITISH POUND (1/6)                  1.65        1.68       1.63
      CANADIAN DOLLAR (1/6)                1.51        1.55       1.43
      EUROPEAN EURO (1/6)                1.1602       NA         NA
      JAPANESE YEN (1/6)                 113.15      115.47     131.63
      KOREAN WON (1/6)                   1158.5      1209.1     1745.0
      MEXICAN PESO (1/6)3                 9.770       9.870      8.055
      TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX (1/6)   104.6       106.3      111.0
      
      Sources: Major New York banks. Currencies expressed in units per U.S. dollar,
      except for British pound and European Euro in dollars. Trade-weighted dollar
      via J.P. Morgan.
      
      #Raw data in the production indicators are seasonally adjusted in computing
      the BW index (chart); other components (estimated and not listed) include
      machinery and defense equipment. 1=Western Wood Products Assn.   2=Southern
      Forest Products Assn.    3=Free market value   NA=Not available   r=revised
        NM=Not meaningful
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