PRODUCTION INDEX

The production index climbed for the fourth week in a row during the week that

ended Oct. 4. The unaveraged index also advanced by 0.9% to 127.1, from 126.

After seasonal adjustment, output of autos, electricity, oil, coal, and lumber

were up. Rail-freight traffic rose 2.2%, as the Association of American

Railroads reported that railroad intermodal volume had set a weekly record for

that week. Production of raw steel fell 3.2% and trucks dipped by 2.4%.

PRODUCTION INDICATORS
                                            LATEST       WEEK        YEARLY
                                             WEEK         AGO        % CHG
      
      STEEL (10/11) thous. of net tons     2,178        2,155#        8.0
      AUTOS (10/11) units                  123,362      124,549r#    -4.8
      TRUCKS (10/11) units                 137,857      141,574r#     13.4
      ELECTRIC POWER (10/11) millions
       of kilowatt-hrs.                    64,585       63,525#       9.3
      CRUDE-OIL REFINING (10/11) thous.
       of bbl./day                           NA         15,086#       NA
      COAL (10/4) thous. of net tons       21,253#      21,543       -3.5
      LUMBER (10/4) millions of ft.        476.6#       479.9        -1.3
      RAIL FREIGHT (10/4) billions
       of ton-miles                        28.0#        27.4          0.7
      
      Sources: American Iron & Steel Institute, Ward's Automotive Reports, Edison 
      Electric Institute, American Petroleum Institute, Energy Dept., WWPA1, SFPA2, 
      Association of American Railroads
      
      LEADING INDICATORS
                                           LATEST        WEEK       YEARLY
                                            WEEK         AGO         % CHG
      
      STOCK PRICES (10/10) S&P 500         966.98       965.03        38.0
      CORPORATE BOND YIELD, Aaa (10/10)    7.00%        7.01%        -5.8
      INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES (10/10)  105.1        105.1        -2.5
      BUSINESS FAILURES (10/3)               NA          NA           NA
      REAL ESTATE LOANS (10/1) billions      NA          NA           NA
      MONEY SUPPLY, M2 (9/29) billions    $3,995.6     $3,992.7r      5.8
      INITIAL CLAIMS, UNEMPLOYMENT
       (10/4) thous.                        304         309         -6.5
      
      Sources: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Journal of Commerce (index: 1990=100), 
      Federal Reserve, Labor Dept.
      
      PRICES
                                          LATEST         WEEK     YEARLY
                                           WEEK           AGO      % CHG
      
      GOLD (10/15) $/troy oz.              326.500      332.600     -14.4
      STEEL SCRAP (10/14)#1 heavy, $/ton   139.50       137.50       10.3
      COPPER (10/10)  cents/lb.            96.8         98.2         1.4
      ALUMINUM (10/10)  cents/lb.          78.5         79.0         23.6
      COTTON (10/11) strict low middling
       1-1/16 in.,  cents/lb.              69.32        69.60       -6.2
      OIL (10/14) $/bbl.                   20.63        21.93       -18.7
      CRB FOODSTUFFS (10/14) 1967=100      243.73       244.56      -4.4
      CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS (10/14) 1967=100 334.79       334.16      -0.6
      
      Sources: London Wednesday final setting, Chicago market, Metals Week, Memphis 
      market, NYMEX, Commodity Research Bureau
      
      FOREIGN EXCHANGE
                                          LATEST         WEEK        YEAR
                                           WEEK          AGO          AGO
      
      JAPANESE YEN (10/15)                 121.22       121.59       112.13
      GERMAN MARK (10/15)                  1.75         1.75         1.54
      BRITISH POUND (10/15)                1.62         1.62         1.58
      FRENCH FRANC (10/15)                 5.86         5.89         5.20
      ITALIAN LIRA (10/15)                 1709.0       1721.5       1536.5
      CANADIAN DOLLAR (10/15)              1.39         1.37         1.36
      MEXICAN PESO (10/15)***              7.732        7.754        7.785
      TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX (10/15)  105.7        105.4        98.5
      
      Sources: Major New York banks. Currencies expressed in units per U.S. dollar, 
      except for British pound in dollars. Trade-weighted dollar via J.P. Morgan.
      
      INTEREST RATES
                                           LATEST       WEEK         YEAR
                                           WEEK         AGO          AGO
      
      FEDERAL FUNDS (10/14)                5.61%        5.42%        5.41%
      COMMERCIAL PAPER (10/14) 3-month     5.53         5.50         5.42
      CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT (10/15)
       3-month                             5.65         5.61         5.40
      FIXED MORTGAGE (10/10) 30-year       7.46         7.45         8.09
      ADJUSTABLE MORTGAGE(10/10) one-year  5.73         5.65         5.92
      PRIME (10/10)                        8.50         8.50         8.25
      
      Sources: Federal Reserve, HSH Associates, Bloomberg Financial Markets
      
      #Raw data in the production indicators are seasonally adjusted in computing the 
      BW index (chart); other components (estimated and not listed) include machinery 
      and defense equipment. 1=Western Wood Products Assn.   2=Southern Forest 
      Products Assn.    ***=Free market value   NA=Not available   r=revised   NM=Not 
      meaningful
      
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