The production index continued to decline in the week ended Nov. 9. However,

before calculation of the four-week moving average, the index increased to

131.6, from 130.7. In the latest week, seasonally adjusted output of autos and

trucks jumped back sharply, and steel output was also up. Electric power,

crude-oil refining, and lumber production were weak.

The leading index will be unavailable for an indefinite period of time.

PRODUCTION INDICATORS
                                                LATEST    WEEK      YEARLY
                                                  WEEK    AGO        % CHG
      STEEL (11/16) thous. of net tons           1,904     1,959 #    1.3
      AUTOS (11/16) units                      131,120   126,859 r#   5.7
      TRUCKS (11/16) units                     115,886   112,897 r#  -3.6
      ELECTRIC POWER (11/16) millions of
        kilowatt-hrs.                           62,113    60,442 #    2.6
      CRUDE-OIL REFINING (11/16) thous.
        of bbl./day                             14,162    13,744 #    3.2
      COAL (11/9) thous. of net tons            21,195 #  21,204      5.0
      LUMBER (11/9) millions of ft.              485.8 #   487.7      8.9
      RAIL FREIGHT (11/9) billions of ton-miles   26.4 #    26.8      2.3
      
      Sources: American Iron & Steel Institute, Ward's Automotive Reports, Edison 
      Electric Institute, American Petroleum Institute, Energy Dept., WWPA1, SFPA2, 
      Association of American Railroads
      
      LEADING INDICATORS
                                                LATEST    WEEK      YEARLY
                                                  WEEK     AGO       %CHG
      STOCK PRICES (11/15) S&P 500              737.62    730.82     24.1
      CORPORATE BOND YIELD, Aaa (11/15)           7.28 %    7.38 %    1.4
      INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES (11/15)        105.8     105.3     -5.5
      BUSINESS FAILURES (11/8)                      NA        NA       NA
      REAL ESTATE LOANS (11/6) billions             NA        NA       NA
      MONEY SUPPLY, M2 (11/4) billions        $3,791.3   3,781.6 r    4.2
      INITIAL CLAIMS, UNEMPLOYMENT (11/9)
         thous.                                    328    332   r    -13.9
      
      Sources: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Journal of Commerce (index: 1990=100), Dun 
      & Bradstreet (failures of large companies), Federal Reserve, Labor Dept.
      
      PRICES
                                                LATEST   WEEK      YEARLY
                                                  WEEK    AGO       % CHG
      GOLD (11/20) $/troy oz.                  379.100   381.900     -1.7
      STEEL SCRAP (11/19) #1 heavy, $/ton       116.50    116.50    -13.4
      COPPER (11/15)  cents/lb.                  102.6      98.0    -26.6
      ALUMINUM (11/15)  cents/lb.                 68.8      68.5    -10.6
      COTTON (11/16) strict low middling 1-1/16
         in.,  cents/lb.                         68.98     69.72    -18.4
      OIL (11/19) $/bbl.                         24.64     23.75     36.2
      CRB FOODSTUFFS (11/19) 1967=100           226.49    227.10     -6.8
      CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS (11/19) 1967=100      330.95    328.42     -2.6
      
      Sources: London Wednesday final setting, Chicago market, Metals Week, Memphis 
      market, NYMEX, Commodity Research Bureau
      
      FOREIGN EXCHANGE
                                                LATEST      WEEK    YEAR
                                                  WEEK      AGO      AGO
      JAPANESE YEN (11/20)                      111.23    111.45   101.15
      GERMAN MARK (11/20)                         1.50      1.50     1.41
      BRITISH POUND (11/20)                       1.68      1.66     1.56
      FRENCH FRANC (11/20)                        5.07      5.09     4.86
      ITALIAN LIRA (11/20)                      1498.2    1514.0   1590.5
      CANADIAN DOLLAR (11/20)                     1.34      1.33     1.35
      MEXICAN PESO (11/20)***                    7.887     7.915    7.630
      TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX (11/20)         96.8      97.0     93.9
      
      Sources: Major New York banks. Currencies expressed in units per U.S. dollar, 
      except for British pound in dollars. Trade-weighted dollar via J.P. Morgan.
      
      INTEREST RATES
                                                 LATEST    WEEK      YEAR
                                                  WEEK      AGO      AGO
      FEDERAL FUNDS (11/19)                       5.29 %    5.30 %   5.81 %
      COMMERCIAL PAPER (11/20) 3-month            5.41      5.40     5.72
      CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT (11/20) 3-month     5.38      5.37     5.73
      FIXED MORTGAGE (11/15) 30-year              7.79      7.90     7.64
      ADJUSTABLE MORTGAGE (11/15) one-year        5.72      5.79     5.68
      PRIME (11/19)                               8.25      8.25     8.75
      
      Sources: Federal Reserve, HSH Associates, Bloomberg Financial Markets
      
      BW production index copyright 1996 Bloomberg L.P.
      
      #Raw data in the production indicators are seasonally adjusted in computing the 
      BW index (chart); other components (estimated and not listed) include machinery 
      and defense equipment. 1=Western Wood Products Assn.   2=Southern Forest 
      Products Assn.  ***=Free market value   NA=Not available   r=revised   NM=Not 
      meaningful
      
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