George Bush probably won't play an active role in politics after leaving office. But his candidate is emerging as the favorite to win the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee in January. Spencer Abraham of Michigan, executive director of the gop's congressional campaign committee, is backed by both Bush-Quayle forces and Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole (Kan.). Haley Barbour of Mississippi is pushing himself as an outside-the-Beltway choice who would appeal to the vital Southern constituency. Ex-Army Secretary Howard H. "Bo" Callaway is a dark horse.

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