A Leading Indicator That's Leading In The Right Direction

Is business activity starting to stir? Chief Economist Irwin L. Kellner of Chemical Bank notes that the Commodity Research Bureau's spot industrial-price index recently hit its highest level in over a year and is more than 10% above its early February low. Although a lead strike in Peru helped push the index higher, Kellner notes that 10 of its 13 components have posted gains since February. "At the very least, the rise in the index suggests that the economy is still expanding," says Kellner, "and it may just be the first sign of an acceleration in economic growth."

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