If you want to know who's likely to win the Presidential election, check the market--the Iowa Political Stock Market, that is. Since 1988, economists at the University of Iowa's business school have been running an experimental market in political futures.
Regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Iowa market has issued $47,000 worth of shares to 630 traders around the nation. Current quotes on one set of shares whose values are based on voting percentages have Clinton leading in the popular vote by 52% to 48%. Another class of shares, however, puts the chances of a Clinton victory at 59% (the current price of a Clinton share is 59 cents), compared to 41% (41 cents) for Bush. Between now and November, however, there's still lots of time for a market correction.